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The Telangana Riddle ...........
Sunday, February 20, 2011
Lying on my bed , i am melancholic about the state of affairs in Andhra pradesh ..I am taking a deep look at the tactics adopted by TRS , it's possible impact on the congress party at the centre .I shall unravel the parameters of the whole political equation in that riddle .
Looking at the mood of the congress party at the centre there are good reasons to believe that they have developed cold feet over telangana . All the claims of economic injustice have been proven wrong by Srikrishna Report , this leaves congress party at only one argument . Should we divide the state because people of Telangana desires so ? The capital city Hyderabad and Ranga reddy district together consitute 25% of Telangana constituencies . These places have never voted for TRS and never will vote to them obviously due to the economic factors around Hyderabad . There is wide spread fear that there would be a flight of capital from Hyderabad. The fact that TDP lost so miserably in 2009 elections in Hyderabad-Rangareddy region was attributed to this pro-telangana stance .TRS did not even put up candidates in the greater hyderabad municipal elections as they were very sure that they would not win a single corporator .After 2009 election when TDP broke off from TRS it won as many seats as the ruling congress itself . So should the state be divided and Hyderabad be handed over to Telanagana even if the people of Hyderabad dont want it .They would not speak out openly though . Andhra Politicians were not smart enough to rally opinion in Hyderabad . The division of state is also feared to trigger similar demands across the country . Governor Narasimhan has reportedly adviced against the division as Telangana could become a hot bed of naxalism in future .
The other three districts of southern Telangana Mahabubnagar , Khammam and Nalgonda are the bastions of TDP and Congress respectively . TRS will not win a single seat in those districts despite all the rabble rousing pyrotechnics . So the whole movement is concentrated in the Northern Telangana . Northern Telangana constitutes of Adilabad , Nizamabad , Karimnagar , Medak and Warangal . These districts form the core of the movement and are significantly to go the TRS way .One could get a measure of the movement in the 2011 AP local elections .very clearly .
The congress party will inevitably calculate its political costs and in a divided state it will only be trounced . If at all a division happens the political space in the Andhra region shrinks and will be occupied by charismatic leaders like Chandrababu Naidu and Jagan wiping the congress out of Andhra completely ..Andhra is a state driven by leaders , not by parties . Without a leader Congress can go nowhere and people will not forgive the congress leadership if it chooses to force-divide the state ..It will be a huge psycological blow for the people in Andhra region which has more than 2/3's of assembly seats and they will erupt and the congress party will have to face an unbelievable crisis if such a decision is taken .. Politically it means congress will be wiped of Andhra . In Telangana region TRS will take credit for this entire fiasco and congress will lose there as well .The worst fears of congress about BJP will become true there . All in all that would be one nightmare for congress party to see itself decimated in AP which is it's bastion .
The riddle of Telanga does not end there .. Even if Andhra legislators agree for the division then the real problems will arise . The fight is about three major things 1. Hyderabad 2.Water sharing 3.The psycological blow of becoming a dwarf state . The residents of Hyderabad which ever region they belong to are against division , TRS knows this fact and that is why they dont contest local elections in Hyderabad .In the divided state Andhra people will feel insecure as they will become objects of political dispensation if division ever happens . It will be far more nightmarish for the congress party to build consensus around division of the state . Forced division will be the death knell for congress party . Andhra pradesh is a volcano right now !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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