Gain and lose just as much....

If, by refering to calculated polarisation, you mean alienation ( i can't think of a more suitable word) of one section of the population can be reasoned with the hope of getting closer to another that would think on communal terms, I do not think it would pay dividends in the longer term. Our success at the end of the day would depend on our ability to convince the rural and urban population alike that we can govern better. So I have my doubts on the gains that you think we may make.

I agree though that some sections of the party think that such acts, even if they were not done with the blessings of the party itself, may give a kick to get started in some regions. The influence of such a kick might and would recede over time and the government/individual becomes just another that has to be voted out of power, even as you would try to gain some influence in newer regions experimenting the successes. The more of newer ground we cover, we risk losing just as much some where else.

See MP, Chattisgarh and many other states did not need such incidents to take place to rein into power and keep hold of it. It is sheer grassroots level organisational strength backed by the hugely influential RSS and the likes.

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Rajnath's visit may go unnoticed by the so called aam-admi but such acts would certainly prove to be a contributing factor in urban regions, though I have to say that it may not be the only reason why Delhi and Mumbai that voted gleefully for the safron parivar in local elections not more than a few years ago did a complete u-turn in the loksabha elections. I know that things have changed since-terror attacks and all have certainly had an impact on the election pattern in both the cities-without completely discounting local factors like MNS. But thats not all. Or is it?

Karnataka and Gujarat are exceptional cases in their own right and cannot be put alongside Orissa. Karnataka, as we know, had this 'mutt' culture (something that is missing in states like AP) for decades before BJP made inroads there, which I think was a huge influential factor and made things a lot more easier for the parivar to spread across the state. 

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I know Siddarth is a communist but the morning of the election results he had foreseen BJP getting back to power. Knowing the kind of BJP hater he is, there was something about this elections that made people like him and even us, believe we were going to win. 

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how or how-much do you think projecting Modi as the man waiting to takeover from Advani has affected the prospects of the party in these elections? Or do u think it was a non-factor?