BJP and the path to 2014

Elections, local, state or central, it seems are now looked at as casual affairs by the party. I would be very surprised to know that anybody in the party's central brass is disappointed at the results.

We know that Rajnath Singh's tenure is coming to an end in a few months. ( Remorseless being that he is, he was expecting to get a renewal of license to further damage the party. Thankfully the RSS has stepped in.)

Before we talk more about the leadership change I think it deserves mention here that party policy forbids an individual from holding two positions at the same time.

It also deserves mention that the RSS, which is being more assertive on party affairs these days, is more vocal about its aversion to politics driven around personalities. Its belief that the situation the party finds itself in currently is a result of personality driven politics is not going to help further larger cause.

The party should not try to please the RSS when it tries to address the leadership issue.

That it is Narendra Modi who can bring the party back into form is an incontestable truth. But how eager the party is to accept this fact and to expedite the process of anointing him the chief is to be seen.

A look at the issue from the 'BJP & Gujarat' perspective:

1. Is Modi ready to takeover immediately?
2. Is the PARTY ready to shift Modi from Gujarat to Delhi considering the fact that Gujarat goes for elections in 2012? Its going to be looked at as a gamble. Is the party willing to go into the elections without Modi being the CM candidate? It has to if it wants to put national affairs ahead of anything else.
3. What if the party choses to wait until after those elections, which would be around the same time when the new president's tenure comes to an end? Party might want to take Modi off Gujarat after winning it. I dread this possibility. Truth is, it would lose precious time and will never be able to recover. BJP needs this time badly not just to instill confidence into and reinvigorate the strength of its cadres but also to reach out to possible allies in crucial states. To approach these issues casually is to concede defeat this early.

Once the party decides in a sure manner which way it wants to go it can then face the task of convincing the RSS. The RSS may be trying to play the big brother but that is only because BJP is being erratic and dysfunctional. Once the critical issue of leadership is resolved, putting its agenda across the table to the RSS, with Modi in the driving seat, is a battle half won with the RSS.

The RSS on its part has to chose between understanding the realities on ground and taking to principled positions. Its aversion to personalities is a cause that helps neither the BJP nor the nation. India as a nation is still too young and not discerned enough for the kind of polity the RSS wants to prescribe. There is no harm dreaming for it and trying to work towards creating a more mature political space in the country. Those changes if and when they happen would certainly do a lot more good but it has to be a bottom-up approach starting with block level units of the party.

It is a process that has to run parallel to the running of the country, something the BJP could hardly afford losing focus on trying to do, and cannot be done by pulling all the stops on everything else. The sooner the RSS appreciates this fact the better it is for the party.